Aug 31 2012
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Looking Back: 2012 Offseason

After the lockout robbed NBA loyalists of a true offseason last summer, Blazers fans were given all the drama they could handle this June and July. As the season fizzled in Portland (feel free to replace ‘fizzled’ with ‘imploded,’ ‘sputtered,’ or ‘blew up like two 18-wheelers full of dynamite crashing head-on at 80 miles an hour’), the immediate future in the Rose City was looking far from rosy. With no general manager directing the vision of the franchise, Nicolas Batum facing restricted free agency after a contentious and public midseason battle for an extension, and the history of continuously striking out on big name free agent signings, Blazers fans had a justified pit in their collective stomachs.

For the first time since the ‘07-’08 season, the Blazers would be watching the playoffs from their expensive imported couches in the comfort of their beautiful homes. The players that knew they were coming back next season said everything they should say about how badly it hurt to miss the playoffs and how hard they will work to get back to postseason play next spring. While it is comforting to hear that Wesley Matthews doesn’t take offseason vacations so he can focus on improving his game, that type of proclamation did little to excite Blazers fans about the team’s immediate future. Blazers fans yearned for an exciting offseason and for a renewal of hope.

Besides the gaping holes at point guard and center, the Blazers had a colossal gap in the front office. The first big news of the offseason came on June 4th when the Blazers announced they hired Neil Olshey away from the Los Angeles Clippers to serve as the team’s general manager. Seen as a smooth-talking salesman, Olshey left a seemingly dreamy situation in Los Angeles for a rocky one in Portland (although he traded one headline-grabbing owner for another). After his first press conference as the Blazers GM, it was apparent that the polished Olshey knew what to say and how to say it. His enthusiasm and charisma immediately drummed up some much needed excitement for the franchise and an outline of a plan was beginning to take shape.

Before Olshey even had a chance to sample a delicious Portland microbrew, he was dropped off at the practice facility to begin evaluating draft prospects. With two lottery picks and an early second rounder in the 2012 draft, Olshey was faced with his first major test in less than a month on the job. Knowing how badly the Blazers needed a starting point guard, the city of Portland paid extra attention to a special solo workout on June 15th when Damian Lillard from Weber State University left the Blazers brass with their jaws on the hardwood floor. With unnamed Blazers sources saying “It’s the best workout we’ve had since Kevin Durant,” Blazers fans and NBA writers began pencilling Sharpieing Lillard’s name as the number six pick in the upcoming draft, giving Portland the point guard they so desperately needed. When his name was called on draft day, another previously foggy part of the Blazers plan became a little more clear.

On June 30th, while Blazers fans were busy watching YouTube videos of Lillard lighting up the Big Sky Conference, Olshey was on a plane to the east coast to meet with Indiana Pacers center (and restricted free agent) Roy Hibbert. As soon as the clock struck midnight, news started to leak that the Blazers and Hibbert had agreed to a maximum contract. The immediate reaction among Blazers fans was bridled excitement. Yes, it would be great to land a young All-Star center, but nobody truly expected the Pacers to let the giant Hibbert leave Indiana. So when the Pacers announced they would match the offer, Blazers fans went back to their Lillard highlight videos and anxiously awaited Summer League. However, even without landing the big prize, Blazers fans slept soundly that night knowing their new general manager was willing to think big in order to turn the franchise around.

Meanwhile, while the Hibbert situation was playing out and the Pacers were coming to grips with the new hefty price tag on their franchise center, the Blazers were facing a similar situation. Those pesky Minnesota Timberwolves had $50 million burning a hole in their pocket and decided they needed a shiny new small forward to join their squad. Olshey announced early and often that the Blazers would match any offer given to Nicolas Batum, and despite a comedy of errors effort from David Kahn, Olshey kept his word. Before the league mandated moratorium on signing free agents could end, Batum’s agent went to the media to explain just how very badly his client wanted to play for Rick Adelman in Minnesota. “But his heart is in Minnesota!” he said. “His talents were wasted in Portland because they just stuck him in the corner to shoot threes!” he said. “If you truly care about him, let him go!” he said (okay, he never said that one). Olshey remained unflappable and the Blazers retained their guy, although the price tag was steep and Batum had a bit of smoothing over to do with the Blazers fans. Batum celebrated his gigantic contract the same way we all would: he delivered the most accurate testicle punch in the history of Olympic basketball.

In the midst of the Batum drama, Lillard was making news for a completely different reason in Las Vegas. Lillard dominated Summer League play. He played with incredible poise and tempo and put to rest any doubt that his small conference college stats would translate poorly to the NBA. He dazzled the gym with posterizing dunks. He had scouts smiling with his decision making ability in the pick-and-roll. He nailed clutch shots and led his squad like a true floor general. If there were still any doubters that he was worth a number six pick, they were seriously reconsidering their stance after he left Vegas in his wake with a co-MVP trophy in his hand.

The Blazers certainly made up for the lack of an offseason last year as excitement, disappointment, and drama colored the summer in Portland. By drafting Lillard as the franchise point guard, hiring Olshey as the new boss and Terry Stotts as the head coach, the Blazers were able to quench three of their four most nagging thirsts. The Oden-sized hole at center is still there, but the modest signings of J.J. Hickson and Joel Freeland (along with the uber-athletic and extremely raw rookie Meyers Leonard) will keep the position interesting this season. Will the Blazers once again watch the playoffs from their homes this coming spring? More than likely. Will the outlook of the franchise look as gloomy as it did last May? Not a chance. The Blazers took the necessary steps to begin the process of improving and hope has certainly reemerged in Rip City. Under Stotts, the Blazers will play an exciting brand of basketball and bring some fun back to Portland.

Be patient, Blazer fans, and enjoy the ride.

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Jan 30 2012
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recaps and previews, stats on stats on stats

looking back / looking ahead

Not pictured: The poor bastard's face that Wallace is so generously standing on. (Photo by Brucey Ely)

Looking Back:

  • Sarcasm: The Blazers were able to hang on late in a gut-wrenching, edge-of-your-seat, use-way-too-many-hyphens-to-describe-the-game contest against the Suns on Friday night.
  • Truth: Blazers won by 38.
  • Marcus Camby has recorded 58 rebounds over the last three games (22, 16, and 20). That total ties the 2nd best three game span of his career. He recorded 64 rebounds over three games in the ’09 season with the Clips (24, 17, and 23).
  • Crawford distributed the ball evenly, fairly, and frequently. This was the 14th 10+ assist game of his career. Best of all: he only committed one turnover.
  • Power Rankings: ESPN’s Marc Stein has the Blazers up two spots to #14. John Hollinger’s strictly statistical based rankings dropped the Blazers down one spot to #7. NBA.com has bumped the Blazers up one spot to #14.

Looking Ahead:

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Jan 27 2012
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stats on stats on stats

Oldies but Goodies

These guys were alive when Taxi Driver debuted. Whoa.

When the Phoenix Suns battle the Portland Trail Blazers tonight at the Rose Garden, four of the NBA’s six oldest players will likely see playing time. Kurt Thomas and Marcus Camby for the Blazers will be facing off against Grant Hill and Steve Nash of the Suns. Combined, these four gentlemen have played over 121,000 minutes of NBA competition. The entire 13-man Sacramento Kings roster has only played 76,000. Not only are these four experienced fellows leading the league in amount of hours lived, meals eaten, and time spent waiting for traffic lights to turn green, they have accomplished (and are accomplishing) some remarkable statistical feats.

  • Blazers C Marcus Camby’s 22 rebounds on Tuesday against Memphis made him the 5th oldest NBA player to grab over 20 rebounds in a game. Only eight players in NBA history have done it over the age of 37, and of those eight players, Camby did it in the fewest minutes (32).
  • Phoenix Suns PG Steve Nash is the only player in NBA history to rack up 20 assists in a game over the age of 37. He had 20 assists in a loss last March to the Lakers.
  • Nash was also the only 35-year-old player in NBA history to average double-digit assists per game for a full season. He just happens to have done it at the age of 36 as well. And is on pace to do it at the age of 37 (10.4 APG this season). John Stockton and Jason Kidd both did it for the last time when they were 34.
  • Suns F Grant Hill is averaging 26.6 minutes per game this season. He joins Kareem, Jordan, Malone, Reggie Miller, Robert Parish, and John Stockton as the only players in NBA history to average over 25 minutes per game at age 39 or older.
  • Blazers F/C Kurt Thomas is shooting 55% from the field this season. He is on pace to become one of only three (qualified) players in NBA history to average 55% or higher from the floor at the age of 39 or older. The other two? Kareem and Mutombo (39 and 40, respectively).

Photo credits: Bruce Ely/Nate Billings/Christian Peterson/Ezra Shaw 

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Jan 23 2012
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guest spots, musings, stats on stats on stats

guest musings from @BIGGUYSPORTS

Please help me in welcoming Garrett Hanna to the program! Garrett is a lifelong Blazers fan and is here to offer his take on the Blazers’ inconsistent start and why it’s too early to sound the alarm. Follow Garrett @BIGGUYSPORTS. Take it away, Garrett:

Hey! Did you know that the Blazers were 7-3 before this last road trip? Ain’t nothin’ like a losing skid to show you who your real friends are; or in this case, real fans. Ten days ago, you could hear people using Trail Blazers and NBA title in the same sentence. Today those same people are wondering if this is even a playoff team.

I was so intrigued by this debate that I have spent the better part of 48 hours trying to figure out which side of this argument I favored. My results were not surprising. In fact, I’ve come up with this conclusion in many of my years as a Blazers fan. What I uncovered was that Blazer fans need to CHILL THE FUDGE OUT!

Instead of focusing on the first 10 games or the last 6, let’s focus on the past 16. First thing’s first: a team’s record at this point in the season is almost meaningless. If the Blazers were sitting with 3 or 4 wins it would be important to talk about record, but they’re not. So let’s forget about the record at this point.

I do, however, have concerns. Let’s look first from a statistical POV, starting with turnover differential. There are only two teams, Portland and Philly, that have a TO diff worse than -3. However, the Sixers make up for its turnover problem by having a great FG% differential. Philly, who is in 1st place in the Atlantic division, has the 3rd best FG% diff at a +4.3%. Portland is 9th worst at -1.2%. In fact, Portland is the only team in the league with a winning record that is a minus in both of these categories.

Here is a less boring way to put it: Portland’s opponents score more efficiently than the Blazers and the Blazers give those opponents more chances to do so. Considering the Blazers have lost 4 of their 7 games by 3 points or less, I think those stats are very telling.

My 2nd concern is how Blazers have looked lost during important offensive possessions. I, like most people, would love to see LaMarcus be more assertive in late game situations. However, I am more concerned about the four other guys on the floor. At times all five guys look like they are waiting for someone else to make a move. Most fans point the finger at Aldridge for late game struggles. The problem is that he is being double and triple teamed late in games and someone else needs to step up and be a confident 2nd option. If teams have to start worrying about the other guys on the floor, only then can the Blazers depend on LA to dominant late in games.

My greatest concern at the beginning of the year had to do with team chemistry. Jamal Crawford, Raymond Felton and Kurt Thomas were all going to get significant minutes and had never been in a Trail Blazers uniform. Gerald Wallace had only played 29 games in Portland. Even guys that feel like they have been Blazers for a while (Wes Matthews and Marcus Camby) have only played the equivalent of a full year in Portland. When you add in Aldridge and Nic Batum, you are talking about an 8 man rotation with virtually zero experience together.

Looking at that, I was worried that the Blazers would start even worse than 9-7. In fact, if you would have told me Portland would be 10-10 after 20 games, I would have taken it. If anyone understands how important team chemistry is, it’s Blazer fans. The Whitsitt era proved that you can’t just throw a group of talented players together and expect great things. I’m actually borderline thrilled with where the Blazers are at this point.

The Blazers are going to get right. All my concerns should disappear with time together on the floor. There is too much talent on this roster and Nate is too good of a coach to let these issues define them. However, until they get to that point, this season is going to be full of meteoric ups and downs. My prediction is still this: I truly think this team is good enough to beat anybody in a seven game series. I just hope the Blazers can put it all together in time for the playoffs.

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Jan 23 2012
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recaps and previews, stats on stats on stats

looking back / looking ahead

Do you think this shot went in? What? You do?! You're funny. (AP Photo/Duane Burleson)

Looking back:

  • Despite outscoring the Pistons in three of the four quarters on Saturday night, the Blazers couldn’t overcome their disastrous 16-point second quarter.
  • “I always want to play, dude. I was dressed.” – Gerald Wallace
  • Has Felton shed the slump? After going 6-9 from the field on Saturday, Felton is shooting 67% over the last two games, with 14 assists and only 4 turnovers.
  • Serious question: Are shooting slumps contagious? I mean, if Wesley accidently drank out of Felton’s Gatorade last week, could he catch it? Wesley is 13 for 50 from the floor over his last 5 games (26%). Not good.
  • Wait, what? Crawford drank from the same Gatorade bottle? Dammit! These guys have to be more careful! Crawford is 22 for 76 over his last 6 games (29%). Not good.
  • Portland handed the Pistons their 4th win of the season. Their 94 points is the 3rd highest scoring output of the year (they are  averaging an NBA worst 85.3 PPG).
  • Box score.

Looking ahead:

  • Blazers host the 6 and 11 Kings tonight at the RG.
  • The Kings gave up 128 points (nope, no overtimes) to the Grizzlies on Saturday night. Memphis had three consecutive 34 point quarters. Sacramento allows the most points per game in the NBA (101.6).
  • Misleading stat of the day: The Kings are the 5th best rebounding team in the NBA (43.8 RPG). Yay!
  • More telling stat of the day: Kings opponents rack up the most rebounds per game in the NBA (46.9 RPG). Boo!
  • That’s a helluva lotta misses. But by whom? Kings opponents shoot over 47% from the floor. That’s the 2nd highest in the league. Only 2 teams average over 47% shooting on the year (Miami and Denver). That means, on average, if you are playing the Kings, you are going to see a jump in your team shooting percentage.
  • Preview of tonight’s game from the Sac Bee. Looks like Marcus Thornton is doubtful for the Kings.
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Jan 21 2012
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recaps and previews, stats on stats on stats

looking back / looking ahead

Sorry to let you down, guys. I was going for 50 and 30. Next time. Next time. (Candian Press/Frank Gunn)

Looking back:

  • LaMarcus had a Kevin Love stat line in the win in Toronto last night. Aldridge set a new career high in rebounds with 23 (previous high was 19, which he set last year against the Bucks). The Blazers went to Aldridge early and often and he ended up taking 25 shots – tied for the most he’s taken in a game this year.
  • Felton was able to peek his head from out of the dark cloud that’s been his shooting slump. He went 6 for 9 from the field and 2 for 4 from beyond the arc. This is only the 4th time these season he’s shot 50% of higher from the floor and the first time he’s made multiple 3′s. Biggest of all was that he got his buckets when they were needed.
  • Aldridge, Camby, and Wallace all had double-digit rebound games – the first time three Blazers have had 10+ in the same game since… Well the last game of last season. The three Blazers that recorded double-digit boards in that game didn’t record a single rebound (or single minute) last night (Babbitt, Chris Johnson, and Earl Barron – no longer here).
  • I don’t really have a ton to say about the Raptors, although I’m pretty peeved at Dwane Casey. The Blazers and Raptors only meet once this season and this Mr. Casey fellow ruined my one chance of seeing the masterpiece that is Jamaal Magloire. Just watch this (jump to the 30 second mark to see Jamaal in his cover-his-eyes-while-he-dunks-in-traffic glory).

Looking ahead: 

  • The Blazers face the Detroit Pistons tonight. Detroit is also on the second night of a back-to-back, but they have the advantage of skipping the travel as both of their games are at The Palace of Auburn Hills. They lost to Memphis last night by 17.
  • The Pistons are last in the league in PPG, last in Pace, 28th in Offensive Rating, 28th in Defensive Rating, but are a half game up on the Wizards for having the worst record in the league. They’ve lost 4 straight and 9 of their last 10.
  • In fact, this ensemble of Pistons is the lowest scoring Pistons bunch since the team moved to Detroit in 1956.
  • The Blazers need this win tonight to get on the plane with a .500 road trip.
  • A bright spot for the Pistons has been the stellar play of second year F/C Greg Monroe. Monroe is averaging a team high 15.7 PPG and a team high 9.6 RPG. Dude’s a stud.
  • Because you can’t talk about the Palace without mentioning the Malice and the Palace, I’ll go ahead and link to that here (video starts at the 8 second mark), so you can watch it for the 1000th time. Oh, and have you seen the Malice at the Palace Part II?
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Jan 17 2012
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recaps and previews, stats on stats on stats

looking back / looking ahead

That was WAY more difficult than it should have been. (Photo from Nintendo)

Looking back:

  • You ever play Super Mario Kart? Okay, good. You ever have one of those days when you were on the last race of the 50cc Mushroom Cup and you were well in the lead (I’m talking by like 8 points) and all you need is a top 7 finish to win the gold and you keep getting slammed with red shells and you find yourself in 8th place coming around the final turn and you are praying for a star and all you get is a green shell but you still manage to finish in 7th to secure the gold by like .09 seconds? That was how yesterday’s game against the Hornets felt.
  • Nic Batum has put together two very solid back-to-back games by following his 29 point effort in Houston with a 19 point showing in New Orleans. Work hard for that money, Nic!
  • The Hornets had a few moments where they looked like they were desperately trying to lose the game.
  • During the 4th quarter I tweeted that the Blazers were on track to hold the Hornets below 78 points, setting a new low for an opponent this season. They had 67 with 3 minutes left. They rattled off 10 quick points to finish with 77. Phew.
  • Box score (if you really want to look).
  • Felton racked up 12 assists (don’t look on the other side of the – HEY! I said don’t look – yes, he had 8 turnovers) for his second double-digit assist game of the season. He had 26 double-digit assist games last season.

Looking ahead:

  • The Hawks are a half game back in the Southeast Division with a 10-4 record.
  • The Hawks are 4th in the NBA in point differential (+7.4).
  • After Hawks center Al Horford went down with the injury, the Hawks are 3-0.
  • Under coach McMillan, the Blazers are 3-3 in Atlanta. They have lost 3 in a row. Side note: In Nate’s first season at the helm of the Blazers (05-06), the Blazers only won 6 road games – 1 of those 6 was at the Philips Arena.
  • Felton and Crawford will, once again, look to break free from their respective shooting slumps tomorrow night on national television. Jason Quick of the Oregonian with a great Blazers Insider piece about the guard struggles.
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Jan 16 2012
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musings

Small Ball: A Batum / Wallace / Aldridge Frontcourt

See how LaMarcus is in the CENTER of this picture? That's a clue. (Jonathon Ferrey/Getty Images)

What we know: Marcus Camby is sidelined with an ankle injury and will miss an undetermined amount of time. He is 37-years old and has played in less than 65 total games in nine of his 15 seasons. Greg Oden is still wearing suits on the bench. Bacon is a wonderful addition to a cheeseburger.

What we don’t know: Any damn thing about when Greg will be back on the court. Who or what made those giant stone balls in Costa Rica.

Where that leaves the Blazers: This Blazers roster is full of versatility. Crawford can easily slide over and play the point to spell Felton. Batum can fill time at the two as well as stretch the floor as a lengthy and athletic four. Wallace’s quickness wreaks havoc on lumbering power forwards and he is stronger than pretty much any small forward not named LeBron. And lastly, LaMarcus has displayed some of his most productive play when the Blazers go small and shove him in the paint at the five.

According to BasketballValue.com, the Blazers most productive lineup has been Crawford, Matthews, Batum, Wallace, and Aldridge. Although the sample size for this unit is particularly small (about 15 and a half minutes), their 134.38 Offensive Rating would rank them as the second most productive unit in the NBA (BasketballValue.com determines qualified units as playing at least 5% of total minutes, or 19.55 minutes). In addition, this unit’s adjusted +/- is a whopping 41.9.

But, you ask, how do we know these stellar numbers have to do with LaMarcus playing the five? Couldn’t they be a result of Crawford playing the point instead of Felton? Great question! But, the 2nd best adjusted +/- for the Blazers this year? Same frontcourt – just switch Crawford for Felton.

While the Batum / Wallace / Aldridge frontcourt has worked well in this small sample size, the Blazers run the risk of damaging both LaMarcus and Wallace’s bodies if they rely on it too much against the more bruising four/five combos in the league. McMillan will likely continue to start Kurt Thomas and bring Batum off the bench, but watch for Aldridge’s minutes at the center position to increase dramatically, especially in close games when the Blazers need a bucket.

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Jan 15 2012
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recaps and previews, stats on stats on stats

looking back / looking ahead

I freakin' hate it when the ball sticks to the floor. :: Photo by Dave Einsel ::

Looking back:

  • Portland is now in 4th place in the Northwest Division with a 7-5 record.
  • Batum had his best game of the season, recording 29 points, 8 rebounds, and 4 blocks. He was seemingly all over the floor at both ends and had three extremely impressive chase down blocks.
  • Felton and Crawford continued their shooting slumps. Those two, plus Wallace, were a combined 2 for 15 from downtown.
  • Inevitably, when a team loses a close game, my eyes go straight to free throws in the box score. Portland missed 9 free throws.
  • Rockets guard Kyle Lowry is making a very strong case to be a coaches’ selection for the All-Star game (and with Deron Williams in the East and Manu Ginobli out with the hand injury, there is room). Lowry had 33 points, 9 assists, and 8 rebounds.
  • The Blazers lost their first overtime game of the season. Last season they were 2-3 in overtime contests.

Looking ahead:

  • The Blazers face the CP3-less Hornets tomorrow at noon Pacific (nothing better than a noon game).
  • The Hornets have also lost three straight and are limping along with a 3-9 record (the worst in the Western Conference).
  • Former Blazer Jarrett Jack is thriving as the starting point guard now that Paul is gone. Jack is averaging career highs in points, assists, rebounds, and minutes played.
  • The Blazers are 3-2 over their last 5 in New Orleans.
  • The Hornets will be without starting shooting guard Eric Gordon (knee swelling).
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Jan 14 2012
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recaps and previews, stats on stats on stats

looking back / looking ahead

Looking back:

  • Portland lost Marcus Camby, their starting center and leading rebounder to a left ankle injury in the 2nd quarter of last night’s loss. Camby is listed as day-to-day with the injury.
  • The Blazers record away from the Rose Garden dropped to 1-3. They have an opportunity to improve that quickly as they have 6 more road games this month.
  • The San Antonio Spurs received a lot of scoring help from their bench… And the Blazers did not. The Spurs bench outscored the Blazers reserves 45 to 17.
  • The Blazers 18 steals are the most the team has recorded since January 2009 in a win against the Washington Wizards.
  • Blazers guards Raymond Felton and Jamal Crawford are still kneck-deep in shooting slumps. They are both shooting under 36% so far this season.
  • Box score.

Loud noises! :: Photo by Steve C. Wilson ::

Looking ahead:

  • The Rockets are also playing on the second night of a back-to-back. They beat the Kings last night in a game that saw all Rockets starters reach double figures in scoring. The Rockets are 3-1 at the Toyota Center in Houston.
  • Rockets PG Kyle Lowry is putting up All-Star numbers so far this season. His 9.4 assists per game is the third best in the NBA and his scoring is up to 16.1 PPG (the highest of his career). He is also the best rebounder (6.8 RPG) on this Rockets team and is well ahead of any other PG in the league in that category.
  • On the other hand, Rockets G Kevin Martin has struggled thus far. His scoring is down over 7 PPG from last year and he is shooting only 40% from the floor.
  • Preview of tonight’s match-up with the Rockets from Red94.net.
  • Care to see Hakeem mix it up with Mitch Kupchak? Of course you do. Things were so different when players could leave the bench during tussles. 
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