Please help me in welcoming Garrett Hanna to the program! Garrett is a lifelong Blazers fan and is here to offer his take on the Blazers’ inconsistent start and why it’s too early to sound the alarm. Follow Garrett @BIGGUYSPORTS. Take it away, Garrett:
Hey! Did you know that the Blazers were 7-3 before this last road trip? Ain’t nothin’ like a losing skid to show you who your real friends are; or in this case, real fans. Ten days ago, you could hear people using Trail Blazers and NBA title in the same sentence. Today those same people are wondering if this is even a playoff team.
I was so intrigued by this debate that I have spent the better part of 48 hours trying to figure out which side of this argument I favored. My results were not surprising. In fact, I’ve come up with this conclusion in many of my years as a Blazers fan. What I uncovered was that Blazer fans need to CHILL THE FUDGE OUT!
Instead of focusing on the first 10 games or the last 6, let’s focus on the past 16. First thing’s first: a team’s record at this point in the season is almost meaningless. If the Blazers were sitting with 3 or 4 wins it would be important to talk about record, but they’re not. So let’s forget about the record at this point.
I do, however, have concerns. Let’s look first from a statistical POV, starting with turnover differential. There are only two teams, Portland and Philly, that have a TO diff worse than -3. However, the Sixers make up for its turnover problem by having a great FG% differential. Philly, who is in 1st place in the Atlantic division, has the 3rd best FG% diff at a +4.3%. Portland is 9th worst at -1.2%. In fact, Portland is the only team in the league with a winning record that is a minus in both of these categories.
Here is a less boring way to put it: Portland’s opponents score more efficiently than the Blazers and the Blazers give those opponents more chances to do so. Considering the Blazers have lost 4 of their 7 games by 3 points or less, I think those stats are very telling.
My 2nd concern is how Blazers have looked lost during important offensive possessions. I, like most people, would love to see LaMarcus be more assertive in late game situations. However, I am more concerned about the four other guys on the floor. At times all five guys look like they are waiting for someone else to make a move. Most fans point the finger at Aldridge for late game struggles. The problem is that he is being double and triple teamed late in games and someone else needs to step up and be a confident 2nd option. If teams have to start worrying about the other guys on the floor, only then can the Blazers depend on LA to dominant late in games.
My greatest concern at the beginning of the year had to do with team chemistry. Jamal Crawford, Raymond Felton and Kurt Thomas were all going to get significant minutes and had never been in a Trail Blazers uniform. Gerald Wallace had only played 29 games in Portland. Even guys that feel like they have been Blazers for a while (Wes Matthews and Marcus Camby) have only played the equivalent of a full year in Portland. When you add in Aldridge and Nic Batum, you are talking about an 8 man rotation with virtually zero experience together.
Looking at that, I was worried that the Blazers would start even worse than 9-7. In fact, if you would have told me Portland would be 10-10 after 20 games, I would have taken it. If anyone understands how important team chemistry is, it’s Blazer fans. The Whitsitt era proved that you can’t just throw a group of talented players together and expect great things. I’m actually borderline thrilled with where the Blazers are at this point.
The Blazers are going to get right. All my concerns should disappear with time together on the floor. There is too much talent on this roster and Nate is too good of a coach to let these issues define them. However, until they get to that point, this season is going to be full of meteoric ups and downs. My prediction is still this: I truly think this team is good enough to beat anybody in a seven game series. I just hope the Blazers can put it all together in time for the playoffs.
